The two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins December 9 and wraps up on the 10th with the 2:00 p.m. ET release of the monetary policy statement. Markets widely expect a 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut, which would bring the Fed Funds Rate to 3.75%.

In addition to the rate decision, the Fed will publish its updated Summary of Economic Projections, including fresh views on inflation, GDP growth, unemployment, and, of course, the dot plot that shows where policymakers believe rates are headed next.

The Fed entered its official blackout period on November 29, which runs through December 11. During this time, officials avoid public commentary, meaning the data and market expectations tell the story. As of now, Fed Funds Futures are pricing in an 88% chance of a rate cut at next week’s meeting.

Key Takeaways

• Rate cuts are expected. This is about gradual improvement, not a rate plunge.
• Updated Fed projections will influence buyer sentiment, mortgage expectations, and early 2026 planning.
• Seasonal patterns like the Santa Claus rally don’t directly impact housing, but they shape broader consumer confidence — often the spark buyers need heading into Q1.

As the year winds down and headlines heat up, clients need guidance more than ever. The market is moving, just not always in ways the headlines suggest. A steady, informed voice goes a long way in helping buyers and sellers plan with confidence.

And remember — Key Mortgage loan officers are here to support you and your clients through every step, from interpreting market shifts to navigating financing options with clarity and confidence.