The National Mortgage News article explains that the Federal Reserve’s early 2026 outlook signals a cautious, data-driven approach that could keep mortgage rates uneven rather than steadily declining. Even if the Fed begins cutting rates, mortgage pricing will still depend heavily on inflation trends and bond market expectations, meaning any improvement in affordability may be brief. As Jen Poniatowski, the Senior Vice President of Growth & Market Expansion at Key Mortgage notes, “Inflation progress needs to hold,” underscoring that stable economic data is critical for sustained relief. She adds that “sustained rates in the 5s require confidence that inflation is cooling without re-accelerating,” highlighting the uncertainty around longer-term declines. At the same time, volatility remains a concern, since “any upside surprise in inflation tends to push mortgage pricing higher, quickly.” Overall, the article suggests lenders and borrowers should remain flexible and responsive to changing conditions rather than expecting a clear downward trend in rates.